European Center for Disease Prevention and Control Updated projections of COVID-19 in EU / EEA and UK 23 November 2020 ECDC: Stockholm; 2020

In May 2020, the ECDC produced a series of short-term projections for the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospital cases (divided into general hospital wards and intensive care units) Updated forecasts were published in September 2020.In this report we present for each country by 25 December 2020 slightly longer-term projections

After the widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the countries of the European Union (EU) / European Economic Area (EEA) and the United Kingdom (UK) for several weeks, the COVID-19 epidemic reached most of the cases Countries peaked in April or early May 2020 after implementing non-pharmaceutical measures to reduce human contact rates, the number of confirmed cases and associated morbidity and mortality fell sharply in most countries, the intensity of these measures was later reduced by the end A recurrence of cases was seen in EU / EEA countries and the UK by October 2020 as this has been accompanied by increased hospital admissions and ICU deaths, the increase is viewed as a result of increased transmission, not just an increased test rate as a result many countries have taken steps to regain tighter controls introduce measures to reduce the rate of contact between people again

Mathematical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the associated COVID-19 disease is used to assess the potential progression of the epidemic within a population and to make decisions about possible public health interventions Methodology inherently facilitates quantification of the uncertainty associated with these estimates and projections In May 2020, the ECDC produced a series of short-term projections for the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospital cases (divided into general hospital wards and intensive care units) Updated forecasts were published in September 2020

In this report we present for each country by the 25th December 2020 somewhat longer-term projections We continue to model a baseline scenario of the status quo, provided that all control measures taken in early November 2020 continue until the end of the projection period, but we also include an alternative scenario that shows the possible impact on the number of cases, hospital stays and Deaths illustrated when the population reverts to the behavior they saw on Jan. We also illustrate the potential impact on hospital stay rates if recently implemented response measures are lifted before Christmas The model is based on epidemiological data and scientific evidence available at the time of publication, further developments are expected as new information and
epidemiological data become available

The model was developed at ECDC and applied at national level for EU / EEA countries and the UK. Mathematical models offer a helpful approach to quantifying uncertainty However, your results should be interpreted and evaluated taking into account the underlying assumptions as well as the completeness and potential bias of the data used for parameterization and calibration

An assessment of the potential course of diseases and mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the most appropriate response strategies should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the specific epidemiological situation in each country, using model projections in context

This report contains updated 30-day projections as well as the inherent model assumptions and uncertainties.Both the model projections and the data to which the model is calibrated should be interpreted with caution, given the differences between national surveillance systems, case definitions and test guidelines, comparisons between countries Based on the data and projections presented in this paper, extreme caution should be exercised and these differences taken into account.The projections presented here illustrate possible future trends in the transmission of COVID-19 in EU / EEA countries and the UK

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread rapidly to become a full-blown Pandemic develops

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World News – UK – Updated projections of COVID-19 in EU / EEA and UK

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid19-updated-projections-november-2020